الموضوع: prediction: possible earthquake in Dubai!!

An earthquake measuring 5 to 6.5 on the Richter scale could soon hit

Dubai, an eminent scientist said.

"If it happens, nearby cities, including Sharjah and Dubai will also be

affected," said Dr Azm Al Homoud, a scholar at the American University

of Sharjah (AUS).

People in Dibba have felt at least 20 tremors in the past nine days and

this indicates a major earthquake waiting to hit the area, said Dr Al

Homoud, earthquake specialist and professor of civil engineering at the

university.

He said the tremors were down to local tectonic movement on the Dibba

fault, which is connected to the Zagros fault a major fault that lies on

the opposite side of the Arabian Gulf in Iran.

"There is energy on Dibba fault that needs to be released and that will

cause an earthquake in the area," he said.

Dr Al Homoud called upon the authorities to put emergency plans in

place. "Civil defense, police and hospitals should be capable of

handling any bigger emergencies and should be well equipped. There is an

immediate need to start scientific research on this issue to analyse the

situation," he said.

"We should develop an earthquake code, launch awareness programmes for

people, train volunteers and civil defense people, set up more quake

monitoring centres, impose design codes on building construction and

check the vulnerability of important buildings such as hospitals and

schools," he added.

It is a national issue and should be handled at a national level, Dr Al

Homoud said. "A general survey of buildings, such as schools, colleges,

hospitals and other important and strategic points, should be carried

out to strengthen their structure to resist any quake," he said.

High rise buildings were being constructed following the earthquake code

in Dubai and Abu Dhabi and some in Sharjah, but the real danger lies

with the smaller buildings and houses.

There have been reports of cracks in some houses due to recent tremors

in Dibba.

"People in the area should be educated about how they should behave in

case of an earthquake. There should be an evacuation plan and also

efforts should be made to form a regional task force to act in case of

such disasters.

"At least two to three tremors measuring 1 to 2.5 on the Richter scale

have been felt every day by residents in Dibba since October 16," he

said.

He said that following the recent tremors, the AUS has already installed

a seismograph the first in the UAE in Fujairah. This continuously

monitors the situation and has so far recorded at least nine tremors

since it was installed five days ago.

"We also installed an accelerometer, another quake monitoring device, in

Dibba three days ago and it has so far recorded at least ten local

tremors," he said.

Officials in Fujairah and Dibba were constantly in touch with AUS and

were monitoring the situation. "We also installed another seismograph at

the AUS last week to monitor any movements," he said.

Dr Al Homoud said there were at least three reasons to take the threat

of earthquakes in UAE seriously:

1. International analysts have said the hazard in the UAE is about the

same as that in parts of California, Turkey and Iran.

2. Two tectonic faults run through the UAE. One of these runs along the

West Coast of the country, right through the major cities from Abu Dhabi

to Ras Al Khaimah. The second one, Dibba fault, enters land near the

southern borders of Oman, coming from the north and runs southward to

the centre of the Arabian Peninsula.

3. An earthquake with a magnitude of five has already occurred in

Masafi, about 23km from Fujairah, on March 11, 2002

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